Ukwenyuka kwemali mboleko okuqala ngoLwesihlanu lomhlaka 25 Septhemba
IKomiti Yenqubomgomo Yezimali (MPC) ivumelane ngazwi linye ngokunyusa izinga lenzalo elibizwa nge-repo rate ngamaphuzu angu-25 ayisisekelo, lisuka ku-7% laya ku-7.25%. Lolu shintsho luzoqala ukusebenza ngomhlaka-25 Septhemba.
UMbusi weBhange Lombuso laseNingizimu Afrika (SARB), uLesetja Kganyago, uthe isinqumo sithathwe ngenxa yokukhathazeka ngokuthi ukwenyuka kwamanani entengo kungase kuqhubeke. Njengamanje, izinga lokwenyuka kwamanani lingu-4.4%.
“Ngokocwaningo lwakamuva lweBureau for Economic Research, okulindelwe ngabantu mayelana nokwenyuka kwamanani kwehle kancane ngemva kokukhuphuka ezinyangeni ezintathu ezedlule. Nokho, kusalokhu kuphezulu. Esikhathini eside kulindeleke ukuthi kube cishe ku-4%, kunokuba kube ku-3% esikuhlosile,” kusho uKganyago.
Uthe ezinyangeni ezimbalwa ezedlule bekubonakala sengathi umthelela wokukhuphuka kwentengo kaphethiloli usuyadamba, kodwa manje usuqinile futhi. Wengeze ngokuthi namazinga enzalo emhlabeni ayenyuka.
Ngokusho kukaKganyago, i-MPC izoqhubeka nokuthatha izinqumo ngokuqapha njengoba isimo somnotho singaqinisekile, kodwa igxile emsebenzini wayo wokugcina amanani ezinzile.
“Kubalulekile ukuthi izinga lokwenyuka kwamanani libuyele ku-3% lapho umthelela walokhu kunyuka kwamanani usudambile. Kungumsebenzi wethu ukuqinisekisa ukuthi lokho kuyenzeka,” esho.
Uthe imodeli yokuqagela yezinyanga ezintathu yeBhange, i-Quarterly Projection Model (QPM), ikhombisa ukuthi izinga lenzalo lingase lihlale licishe lingashintshi kuze kuphele lo nyaka. Le modeli ikhombisa ukuthi lingase lehliswe ngokuhamba kwesikhathi uma ukwenyuka kwamanani sekwehlele ku-3%.
Nokho, uKganyago ugcizelele ukuthi lokhu kuwumhlahlandlela kuphela. Izinqumo zizothathwa emhlanganweni ngamunye, kubhekwe imininingwane yezomnotho kanye nezingozi ezingase zishintshe isimo.
Uthe izingxabano zaseMpumalanga Ephakathi kanye nempi phakathi kweRussia ne-Ukraine ziphazamisa ukuhanjiswa kwezimpahla emhlabeni, okwandisa ingcindezi yokwenyuka kwamanani. Ngenxa yalesi simo, amabhange amakhulu emazweni aneminotho emikhulu nawo enyusa inzalo.
I-SARB ilindele ukuthi ukwenyuka kwamanani kuhlale kuphezulu kuze kube unyaka ka-2027, ikakhulukazi ngenxa yentengo kaphethiloli nezindleko zezinsiza. Ibhange liqagela ukuthi izinga lokwenyuka kwamanani lizobuyela ku-3% ngasekupheleni kuka-2027.
“Yize umnotho unciphile ezinyangeni ezintathu zesibili zalo nyaka, silindele ukuthi ubuye ukhule engxenyeni yesibili yonyaka. Manje siqagela ukukhula konyaka okungu-1.2%, sehlise isibikezelo sangaphambili esingu-1.4%,” kusho uKganyago.
Uthe intengo kaphethiloli isiqalile ukukhuphuka futhi ngemva kokudamba phakathi kukaJuni no-Agasti. Ngakolunye uhlangothi, ukwenyuka kwentengo yokudla kusezingeni eliphansi kunawo wonke kusukela ngo-2010. Lokhu kuhlobene nesivuno esihle kanye nokuzinza kwentengo yenyama ngemva kokuqubuka kwesifo samatele. Ukuqina kwerandi nakho kusize ukunciphisa ukukhuphuka kwentengo yezimpahla ezivela kwamanye amazwe.
Kulo mhlangano, i-MPC iphinde yabheka ukuthi kungenzekani uma inzalo emhlabeni inyuka kakhulu kunalokho okulindelwe. Ngokwesibikezelo sayo esiyisisekelo, amabhange amakhulu omhlaba angase anyuse inzalo cishe ngengxenye yephesenti phakathi kwalo nyaka nolandelayo. Uma lokho kunyuka kungafinyelela ephesentini elilodwa, irandi lingase lehle, kwenyuke amanani, bese kudingeka ukuthi i-SARB igcine inzalo iphezulu isikhathi eside.
Ikomiti liphinde labheka isimo lapho okulindelwe ngabantu ngokwenyuka kwamanani kanye namaholo kukhuphuka khona. Nalapho, imodeli ikhombise ukuthi kungadingeka ukunyuswa kwenzalo okwengeziwe okukodwa noma okubili, bese ihlala iphezulu isikhathi eside.
“Lona unyaka onzima emnothweni womhlaba nowaseNingizimu Afrika. Izingxabano zamazwe ziphazamise ukutholakala kwezimpahla, zanciphisa ukukhula komnotho futhi zanyusa amanani. Ukusimama komnotho waseNingizimu Afrika sekunensayo, kanti ukwenyuka kwamanani sekudlule kakhulu umgomo wethu,” kusho uKganyago.
Uthe i-MPC izama ukungaphenduli ngokweqile ekukhuphukeni kwentengo kwasekuqaleni, kodwa kufanele ivimbele ukuthi lokho kukhuphuka kusabalale kuzo zonke izimpahla nezinsiza. Ngenxa yokuthi izinkinga zamanje zinkulu futhi seziqhubeke isikhathi eside, iBhange likhethe inqubomgomo eqinile, enenzalo ephezulu kunamazinga esikhathi eside.
UKganyago ugcizelele ukuthi umsebenzi oyinhloko we-MPC ukuvikela amandla okuthenga emali ngokubuyisela izinga lokwenyuka kwamanani ku-3% ngokuhamba kwesikhathi.
Umthombo: SAnews.gov.za
